Possible futures
To help us prepare for an uncertain tomorrow, our Cultural Foresights team sets out to decode how climate change will impact the way we live, consume and socialise in the year 2050. And, in 2024, we published our Future Scenarios report, using state-of-the-art methodology to blend the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) latest projections with our in-house consumer trends ecosystem.
The study identified four major potential scenarios, uncovering the socio-political, economic and ecological conditions - as well as the psyche, sentiment, behaviour and belief systems - that shape everyday life.
Sharing our findings
The purpose of this study is to help best prepare for the far-reaching environmental and societal changes to come, and to best anticipate key consumer trends. We strongly believe that resilience can only be achieved by preparing for multiple future scenarios.
As a firm believer in sharing and in collective strength, Pernod Ricard has chosen to publicly present the findings of this study both internally and externally. The aim of this open-source approach is to initiate a comprehensive conversation on this crucial issue amongst players in our ecosystem, and help pave the way for a collective, meaningful and impactful discussion. Our ultimate aim is to enable the only desirable future scenario - eco-harmony - to become a reality.
Kanpur, India
SCENARIO 1
Green totalitarianism
The forced moderation pathway: A world where the protection of the environment comes at the price of people’s rights.
In 2050, stringent environmental policies imposed by governments have successfully curbed carbon emissions, but at the expense of individual freedoms. Constant surveillance and strict regulations control all aspects of life, from consumption to production. Social activities are heavily restricted, and any form of non-essential consumption is stigmatised, promoting a culture of extreme transparency and compliance.
SCENARIO 1
Temperature increase: +1.79°C
Population: 9.15bn
GDP per capita: $23,945
SCENARIO 2
Temperature increase: +2.2°C
Population: 9.96bn
GDP per capita: $17,440
SCENARIO 2
Apocalypse Express
The fragmented pathway: A world in which people have to survive chaotic conditions.
By 2050, the world is marked by extreme weather and societal fragmentation, with climate change spiralling out of control. Rising temperatures and severe resource shortages mean an increasing number of people must learn to survive in extreme weather conditions. This leads to an increased social inequality, and a retreat into private, secure spaces for socialising. The sense of community deteriorates as people prioritise short-term survival over long-term solutions, fostering a nihilistic outlook.